On March 9, 2018 the Moody's rating agency left unchanged sovereign ratings of the Armenian government's long-term liabilities in foreign currency and in national currency (B1), changed the prospect of those ratings from "stable" to "positive". This is reported by the Central Bank of Armenia.

Making "positive" the perspective of Armenia's sovereign rating testifies to the fact that Moody's assesses Armenia's economic developments as positive for the next 12-18 months. The positive outlook is based on effective macroeconomic policies that testify to the country's improved institutional capacities and less economic vulnerability of the country's economy to potential external shocks. Moreover, Moody's expects that the ongoing fiscal reform will reinforce the country's taxable budget position over time.

Together with changing the prospect of the country's sovereign rating, Moody's raised the upper limits of the two levels of national currency bonds and bank deposits from Armenia changing them from Ba2 to Baa3. This is an investment grade assessment, thanks to which the private sector enterprises or financial institutions of Armenia can get a four-level high rating (Baa3) than a sovereign rating (B1) for bonds and bank deposits in the national currency in case of a rating by Moody's.

Moody's also pointed out the risk factors that made the country's sovereign rating unchanged and changed its prospect from "stable" to "positive".

Factors that have a positive impact were: (1) High, though fluctuating, GDP growth; (2) Strengthening institutional policies supporting macroeconomic stability; (3) High level of public debt affordability due to the large share of privileged loans.

The statement notes that Armenia's sovereign rating will rise in case of economic and / or institutional reforms leading to further sustainable economic competitiveness and institutional capacity building. The increase in the ratings will also contribute to a sustained and noticeable decline in Armenia's debt burden over Moody's expectations. It should be noted that, according to Moody's forecasts, Armenia's state debt / GDP ratio will be 56.5% at the end of 2018 and 54.2% at the end of 2019.

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