The international rating agency Moody's improved the outlook for the Russian banking sector from “stable” to “positive” due to the improvement in the quality of assets and the state of capital of Russian banks.

In favor of quality improvement speaks the projected Moody's decline in the share of problem loans. According to agency estimates, this figure will decrease to 9.6% in the next 12-18 months, compared with the level of the end of 2017 (11%). At the same time, as noted in the document, the transfer of problem loans from the balance sheets of three large banks to a special fund of bad assets may lead to a decrease in the share of such loans to 8% by the end of 2019.

In addition, the agency believes that credit losses will decline from 1.6% of the average loan amount in 2017 to about 1.2% in 2018–2019. Also by the end of 2019 the coverage of problem loans due to the reserves formed by banks will increase to 90%. At the end of last year, this figure was a little over 80%. Experts call such indicators a consequence of the efforts of the Central Bank to restore order in credit institutions: Moody's experts noted the increased support of domestic banks by the state, including the increase in its share in this sector. As the agency notes, this shows that both the Russian government and the Central Bank have the desire and ability to support the largest and backbone banks.

At the same time, Moody's raised its growth forecast for the Russian economy to 1.7% on average in 2018–2019. In May his estimate of Russia's increase in GDP this year was 1.5%. Agency specialists believe that economic growth will be supported by the recovery in oil prices, which simultaneously support the Russian national currency.

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